Is there a method in the Conservative Party’s madness?
It’s hard to imagine from the idiocies of its first days, but there’s a chance — just a chance — that the Conservatives actually do have a strategy for this election. But it’s not an election-winning one.
Their first big ideas double-down on the pensioner-loving, teenager-hating image the party has cheerfully cultivated over the past 14 years.
For 18-year-olds, National Service — compulsory work in the military or the community. For the elderly, cash bonuses, turning the triple lock on pensions into a quadruple lock, not only guaranteeing increases, but also that the state pension will not be taxed.
A good news day for the Conservatives from the newspaper of choice for Reform-leaning Tories
National Service appeals to a generation of pensioners who, largely, never had to do it themselves, and who would turn down extra cash?
It’s the clearest sign yet that the Conservatives have given up on appealing to anyone under the age of 50, concentrating on policies designed to win back elderly voters flirting with Reform UK.
Labour dominates among voters under 50
A YouGov poll, conducted across the first half of May, shows the hopelessness of the Tories’ position.
It suggests Labour could win the votes of more than half of people under the age of 50. The party has a 50-point lead in the 25-39 age group.
The gap between Labour and Conservative narrows among people in their 60s, but the Tories only have a lead among voters aged 70 and above. You can’t win a general election from this position.
Reform is an existential threat to the Conservatives
The same poll suggests the Tories have lost around half their 2019 vote — with a-quarter of those who voted Conservative last time now saying they’ll back Reform UK instead.
Reform’s support is minimal among the under-50s, but hits 1-in-4 of those over 60 — suggesting the party threatens the last even vaguely reliable Conservative stronghold.
Without winning a single seat, Reform could be the difference between defeat and annihilation for the Tories. If it takes a-quarter of Tory defectors on July 4, it will hand dozens more seats to both Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
It’s the difference between a Tory opposition of 200, and a Tory rump of 120.
Which is why the Tories are offering further financial guarantees for pensioners, while ordering 18-year-olds to work for free.
Things can only get worse
It might also help to explain Rishi Sunak’s decision to go for a July election.
Small boat crossings — a key driver of Reform support — are on track to set a new record this year. If that gets worse over the summer, if the Rwanda flights don’t happen or don’t work, Reform would be turbo-charged going into the autumn.
A July election isn’t about an unlikely Tory victory. It is — at best — an attempt to leave behind a Tory opposition that has some chance of rebuilding.
