There’s no such thing as a “supermajority” — but a crushing Labour victory would bring changes
We were still a long way from polling day when the Conservatives gave up.
Rather than talk about a Tory victory, ministers warn of the dangers of a Labour landslide, with Grant Shapps leading the way.
The Defence Secretary positioned the Conservatives less as a party of government than the only credible opposition — advocating a Tory vote purely as a restraining force on Labour ministers.
While the result already seems obvious, it’s traditional for the major parties to at least spend the campaign trying to win — even if everyone knows it’s a pretence. But here is a party, in power for 14 years, conceding defeat half-through a campaign.
The Tory election strategy is all about survival, preserving a party in Parliament capable of rebuilding, in the hope of returning to office in the future. Repeatedly warning Labour is set for a huge victory is a desperate strategy to try to depress the party’s vote, if only a little, while hopefully encouraging your own supporters to turn out despite impending defeat.
The likely scale of Labour’s victory, the resurgent Liberal Democrats and the growing threat of Reform are combining to create an existential crisis for the Conservatives.
And that’s what lies behind the spurious talk of “supermajorities” and the dangers of giving one to Keir Starmer.
Polling suggests there won’t be much of an opposition left on July 5th. (Financial Times)
Except… there is no such thing as a supermajority in British politics. The Tories, the Telegraph and others have taken something that has meaning in American politics, and applied it to the UK, where it doesn’t.
Big majorities are nothing new
In 1997, Labour won a majority of 179 — fourteen years earlier Margaret Thatcher led the Conservatives to a majority of 144. Large majorities are a function of Britain’s electoral system. First Past The Post over-rewards the winning party, especially if its rivals are weak or divided.
So, yes, Labour could easily win a significant majority on July 4th, perhaps a record-breaking one. The key factor is the winning party’s lead over the main opposition party. Labour isn’t currently polling much beyond the share it got when Jeremy Corbin lost in 2017 — the difference now is that the Conservatives aren’t 2 points ahead of them, they’re 20 points behind.
If Labour get around 40%, but their rivals can’t get beyond 20%, they will knock over dozens of previously safe Tory seats.
Large majorities turn power into absolute power — no backbench rebellion can seriously threaten you, and a weakened opposition in disarray poses is no danger either.
But they also curb Parliament’s ability to properly scrutinise what that hugely powerful government is up to. Select committee chairs are allocated according to how many seats each party wins. Labour could end up chairing two-thirds of them, and with a comfortable majority of each committee’s members — effectively marking their own homework.
There’d be a financial penalty too — opposition parties get state funding based on vote share and seats won. A tiny rump Tory opposition would lose millions, at exactly the time big corporate donations are likely to dry up.
Parliament works best when there’s a strong government and a strong opposition to keep up the pressure. A weak opposition can create an arrogant government — but voters are clearly determined to give the Conservatives a kicking, and admitting defeat before any votes are cast probably isn’t going to diminish that desire.
NEXT
The polls aren’t shifting, and that means a Tory wipeout is still on the cards.
