Will the Farage Factor crush the Conservatives? Or is Mr Brexit chasing the spotlight one last time?
Even those who loathe Nigel Farage must admit he is, by some margin, one of Britain’s most successful politicians.
He connects with people who take little interest in politics, or conventional politicians, and he played a significant role in one of the biggest moments in Britain’s recent history.
But Farage is also one of our most hated public figures, a seven-time loser in Parliamentary elections. Yet here he comes again, unable to bear a spotlight that isn’t fixed on him.
His decision to replace Richard Tice as leader of Reform UK, and to stand for election in Clacton, was a tiresomely predictable twist in a campaign that Farage himself has said needs “gingering up.”
It also threatens to add to the calamity facing the Conservatives. Initially, it looked like Rishi Sunak’s early election had outfoxed Farage, who ruled out running. That didn’t last. If Sunak had held on until November, Farage would have been too busy shilling for convicted criminal Donald Trump. Instead, he’ll put turbo boosters on Reform.
Salisbury, Bexhill, Eastleigh, Bromley and Thanet have all resisted the electoral charms of Nigel Farage. Now it’s Clacton’s turn — the very prospect that seemed so unappealing to him back in February, when he asked The Sunday Times “do I want to be an MP? Do I want to spend every Friday for the next five years in Clacton?”
Farage devoted little of his at-times rambling announcement to the needs or concerns of the people of Clacton, focusing instead on the huge personal sacrifice he was making in offering to represent them. If he finally manages to break his electoral curse and win, the people of Clacton should expect their new MP to go on a few fact-finding missions to the Trump Tower.
But while this is undoubtedly an ego trip for Farage, it also has the potential to heap further misery on Rishi Sunak. Already one former Conservative MP has endorsed the Reform candidate in her constituency. Will others jump ship? Could Reform overtake the Tories in polls that already look cataclysmic for the party?
As leader, Farage will get far more airtime from broadcasters unable to resist his rabble-rousing rhetoric. He is catnip for coverage built on conflict and online engagement. And Reform is able to do something the Conservatives cannot — admit that Labour is going to win the election, and position itself purely as an opposition party.
The Tory strategy is clearly focused on shoring up enough of the core vote to survive, but no senior Conservative can say what Farage will — that Labour has already won this election.
Is there a long-term aim, beyond feeding Farage’s ego? Bearing in mind the latest large-scale poll suggests a dozen Cabinet ministers could lose their seats next month, whatever remains of the Conservative Party in Parliament would be vulnerable to a reverse takeover.
Reform might not be the only party Nigel Farage is planning to lead.
