Wipeout — latest poll heaps more misery on Rishi Sunak
The predicted outcome from the most recent MRP poll
You should never take a single opinion poll too seriously. Always look for trends. But the trend for the Conservatives is, let’s be honest, apocalyptic.
The latest MRP poll, using a much bigger-than-average sample and drilling down to individual seat predictions, suggests the Tories are facing a devastating, potentially fatal, defeat on July 4.
It presents a range of potential outcomes, but the central prediction is that Labour could win 476 seats, a majority of around 300.
If voters fully embrace tactical voting, it suggests the Conservatives could be reduced to a rump of 66 seats. Lose four more to the Liberal Democrats, and Ed Davey would be the leader of the opposition.
That’s not a poor result — it’s an extinction level event for the Tories. Eighteen Cabinet ministers would lose their seats, with Keir Starmer winning a far bigger victory than Tony Blair in 1997.
Tories caught in a pincer movement
The poll suggests the Conservatives are losing to both Labour and Reform in the midlands and the north of England, the “Red Wall” demolished overnight. But the party’s also losing to the Liberal Democrats in the south.
Reform is predicted to get 12% of votes — no seats, but a big enough splintering of the traditional Conservative vote to hand dozens of normally rock-solid Tory seats to their rivals.
If nothing else, it at least explains Rishi Sunak’s strategy — policies designed purely to appeal to elderly Conservatives flirting with a defection to Reform. It’s the only way to limit their losses and leave behind an opposition party with any chance of rebuilding.
But this is just one poll, at an early stage in a long election campaign, and a lot could change over the coming weeks:
Gigantic poll leads could embolden Keir Starmer’s left-wing critics. Unhappy with the likely direction of a future Labour government, they could feel free to lend their votes to the Greens or independents, safe in the knowledge that the Tories are facing certain defeat.
The prospect of a Labour government with an unassailable majority could prompt some to think again. Do they really want a government with a majority so huge it can do whatever it wants, without ever worrying about opposition, never really being held to account in Parliament?
We’ve seen in the past few days that Keir Starmer is prone to blunders of his own. A couple more moments like the fiasco around Diane Abbott, and the Labour campaign won’t seem so sure-footed.
The danger of complacency
Senior figures inside Labour won’t like this poll, which creates the expectation of a history-making, earth-shattering annihilation of the Conservative Party. You run the risk of winning 390 seats and being told it’s a disappointing result.
Labour will also be desperate to avoid looking arrogant, acting as if they’ve already won. They'll continue to fight the election as if it’s on a knife-edge no matter what the polls say.
As for the Conservatives, their existing mood of desperation could darken further. Can the party’s candidates and activists keep up this facade all the way to polling day? How straight a face can you keep while insisting Rishi Sunak is leading you to victory?
Instinctively, this poll doesn’t feel right. Parties do win big majorities under First Past The Post, but not this big. Then again, we’ve seen huge, rapid swings in public opinion in the past decade — not just the Brexit vote. The Conservatives went from 9% in the 2019 EU elections to an 80-seat Westminster majority six months later.
Labour’s poll lead is significant and sustained. There’s no question they’re going to win this election, almost certainly with a big majority. But an eye-wateringly vast one? Anything is possible, but it really would be a once-in-a-lifetime event.
